Dismal Year For Commodity Markets, Gold Neutral, Palladium Excels

By Neils Christensen of Kitco News
Wednesday December 31, 2014 10:12 AM (Kitco News) - As traders and analysts look back on 2014 the one theme that most can agree on is that commodity markets had a terrible year, while the U.S. dollar shone bright.
“Overall it has been a dismal year for the commodity complex with 2014 registering the largest annual loss since the global financial crisis of 2008,” said Tim Gardiner, managing director of global metals at TD Securities, in a note to clients Wednesday.
Although commodities struggled through 2014, gold was a modest source of strength as it ends the year near neutral territory. As of 9:48 a.m. EST, Comex February gold futures were at $1,194.60 an ounce, down $6.40 on the day.
Gardiner said while gold appears to be ending the year where it started the price averaged $1,265 an ounce in 2014.
Analysts have noted that the biggest factor affecting commodity prices this year has been the U.S. dollar, which has had its best performance since 2015. The U.S. dollar has benefited from an outperforming economy and interest rate differentials. While the Federal Reserve is contemplating normalizing interest rates other major central banks like the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan continue to loosen their monetary policy.
Analysts at BNP Paribas said in a research note Wednesday that the U.S. dollar is ending the year with double digit gains, rising about 12% on the year. They added that they expect to see continued U.S. dollar strength in 2015.
“The rapidly disappearing excess capacity in the US economy should keep U.S. yields supported and continue to boost the USD in 2015,” they said in their note.
According to data compiled by Brown Brothers Harriman, the yellow metal was their second best performing commodity of the year.
In BBH’s list, Coffee found the top spot for 2014, seeing 48.6% returns on the year. At the bottom of the list is crude oil, which lost more than 49% on the year.
The silver market was caught in the middle as prices lost about 17% on year.
Peter Hug, global trading director at Kitco Metals, said that within the precious metals complex, palladium is “the last metal standing” for 2014. Palladium is ending the year in positive territory with gains of about 12% on the year.
“Economic growth in 2015 will continue to affect palladium supplies, along with rhodium, which is in a similar situation, both may be the metal stars of 2015,” he said.

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Dec 31 My Stock Predictions for 2015 and Beyond RickAckerman

My Stock Predictions for 2015 and Beyond

by Rick Ackerman on December 29, 2014 12:32 am GMT · 11 comments

In the past, Rick’s Picks has shunned year-end predictions because there are far too many variables to handicap accurately. I’ve decided to take a crack at it anyway this year because I was curious to see what conclusions purely technical analysis would yield for some widely followed issues. I’m no seer, just a chartist, and I’ll say up front that the question of whether the Dow Industrials are trading at 23,000 at the end of 2015, or at 14,000, is probably no better than a coin-toss bet. Also, because the stock market is a house of cards and only distantly connected to economic reality, only a fool would try to predict the timing of The Big One that we all know is coming. Stocks could collapse at any moment, to be sure, and although I doubt this will occur next year, the odds are hardly remote. If you absolutely need to know when calamity will strike, I recommend checking the year-end predictions of Bob Prechter, Martin Armstrong and Ross Clark, since they are the very best timers in the guru world.

Click here to share these stock predictions for 2015 on Twitter.

Keeping the foregoing in mind, I’ve allowed for both bullish and bearish scenarios in most of the forecasts above. Those designated ‘N/A’ imply outcomes that are unimaginable to me. For instance, the shares of Snipp Interactive, a penny stock that is my number one bullish pick for 2015, seem unlikely to head lower no matter what happens to the economy. The firm provides personal-device-based marketing solutions to a growing list of blue-chip clients, and they are nimble and imaginative enough not only to excel in their niche, but to expand it. Similarly, Apple looks like a surefire winner, especially with the company positioning itself via Apple Pay to take a small piece of every retail transaction that occurs. Indeed, if there is a good reason to think U.S. stocks will continue higher in 2015, it is that the shares of Apple, the most valuable company in the world, look so promising. I’ll mention T-Bonds as well. They were my no-brainer, shout-it-from-the-rooftops bull trade in 2014, producing capital gains of 20%-plus, and so they shall remain. I expect long-term Treasurys not only to continue their long-term uptrend and yields to continue falling in the year ahead, but for years to come.

Dow ‘Only’ to 19457?

Some final notes: Some of the bull/bear targets paired in the table above could both be hit, although not necessarily in the same year. That goes for bullion, where my forecast allows for a bull market to begin after a bottom is reached sometime next year. Obviously, the $2.06 target for a barrel of crude is an extreme outlier. I’ve included it simply because, strictly speaking, that’s what the charts indicate now that January Crude has fallen beneath a key ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’ at 55.43. A rally back to that price would theoretically be short-able. Indeed, any target given above can be used in two ways: 1) getting long or short with the implied trend; and/or 2) playing for a reversal at the target itself.  Regarding the Dow, I was surprised myself to see that, from a purely technical standpoint, a mere 19457 would seem to be as bullish as it gets. You should jot down 18973 as well, since that Hidden Pivot also has the potential to reverse the bull’s nearly six-year rampage.

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Dec 31 Sound Money and the Ring of Truth Guy Christopher

Sound Money and the Ring of Truth

Guy Christopher
Posted Dec 31, 2014
We Americans no longer carry gold and silver money in our pockets and purses as our grandparents did during their lives. But we still carry the history, legacy and spirit of those gold and silver coins in our language – with more meaning than you might imagine.
“Sound money” has a clear message recognized for centuries around the world. It describes the musical, metallic ring of a gold, silver, or copper coin dropped on any hard surface of glass, stone, wood, or metal. Sound money literally refers to real wealth, with a natural, unmistakable signature of honesty and integrity, as opposed to the swishy paper and plastic debt used almost exclusively today.
The term “sound money” is believed to come from Ancient Rome, where small silver coins were standard in everyday commerce, for paying Roman soldiers to buying exotic goods from all corners of the known world. As Rome squandered its wealth, it found what seemed an easy shortcut to shore up the treasury. It gradually debased those silver coins with common metals, ultimately cutting the silver content to just 5 percent.
But that didn't fool anyone for long, most of all disciplined Roman soldiers, who did not appreciate being paid with worthless mystery metal in return for risking their lives on Rome's bloody battlefields.
Do You Want True Money or a Debased Dud?
Not every Roman soldier had room in his gear for a touchstone, usually fieldstone or slate, also used to test the purity of metals. But they quickly discovered the difference in the sound of true money and a debased dud.
They recognized that real silver had a distinctive melodious ring when bounced on a hard surface, such as the blade of a handy sword, a bronze breastplate, or an ornate marble floor. Sound money carried the 'ring of truth,' while debased coinage landed with a dull, disappointing thud.
The debasement of Rome's silver currency unmasked the deceit of a bankrupt empire, which ended with the fall of Rome, a pattern repeated many times. Sound money's “ring of truth” had found its place in the history of money and of nations.
As the United States grew westward to the Pacific Coast and north to Alaska, gold, silver and copper coins of all nations were legal tender in the young United States until the 1850's, and were in use even long after that. Americans with no formal education in reading, writing and arithmetic relied on the sight, sound, and feel of the only money they knew. Learning the different musical ringing sounds of those coins could easily qualify even a prairie settler fresh off the wagon train as an economic expert.
In the Old West of the range roving American cowboy, the ring from that silver dollar tossed on the bar of polished oak told the saloon keeper he was pouring whiskey for sound money, and not for a counterfeit forgery.
The sound money test unmasked one of the most famous counterfeiting schemes in American coinage history. The Liberty Nickel (1883-1913) was originally struck without the words “Five Cents,” bearing instead only the Roman numeral “V.” Gold plated Liberty Nickels were passed off as a newly designed $5 gold piece, but the sound money test quickly identified the scandal. Within six months of issuing the first “V” nickels, the U.S. Mint added the words “Five Cents.” But for the next many years, every Liberty $5 Half Eagle in town was tested for its ring of truth.
Sound money means simplicity, honesty, and trustworthy recognition. It stands for strength and durability which were also characteristics of those pioneering Americans who built our nation.
The ring of sound money for centuries has transcended borders and nationalities by singing its own melodic language. No matter what words were stamped into a precious metal coin, that ring of sound money certified its value, or exposed the deception.
Governments Have Distorted the Meaning of Money
“Sound money” carries such a powerful message there's little wonder that governments issuing paper fiat currency have attempted to corrupt its meaning, with help from unimaginative and lazy educators and journalists.“Hard currency” first referred to metal coins, not paper money, but the term over the years has come to mean that flimsy, paper, folding cash is more trustworthy than a handwritten check or IOU.“Good as gold” is another aberration of “sound money,” usually referring to credit worthiness, even though there is no credit as good as gold.When Washington and Wall Street began pushing plastic credit cards, which are nothing more than debt disguised as wealth, Americans were introduced to the gold card along with the credit rating and FICO score as a false measure of one's financial worth. Today, the newest edition of the $100 Federal Reserve note carries a golden inkwell and feather pen, as if to sarcastically say money itself is a masquerade of paper script and not precious metal.Americans today have no memory of those times when gold, silver, and copper coins were tossed across a store counter, or counted out by hand, to pay for everything from penny candies to Ford Model-T automobiles. That era began ending when President Roosevelt in 1933 outlawed the use of gold coins in everyday American commerce.The separation of Americans from their Constitutional heritage to true money continued through 1964, with the end of small coinage containing 90% silver. The deception was complete by 1982 when copper quietly disappeared from the Lincoln penny.But no government could remove the ringing echo of sound money from history, or from us. And government cannot camouflage its counterfeits with gold colored paint. You can experience sound money's evident ring of truth for yourself. Toss any gold or silver coin on your kitchen table and you will hear the history of honest money ringing down through the centuries.

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Dec 31 It could not look better for the PM sector going into 2015 CliveMaund

IT COULD NOT LOOK BETTER FOR THE PM SECTOR GOING INTO 2015...

 

originally published December 30th, 2014

In this article we are going to look at compelling evidence that the Precious Metals sector is either at or very close to a major bottom, and see why the chances are high that the sector will rally strongly in the New Year. You have all heard the old adages about “buying low and selling high” and how the time to buy is when there is “blood running in the streets”. Never have these adages been more applicable than they are now to the Precious Metals sector, where even the most diehard bulls have had enough and thrown in the towel.
The abysmal sentiment towards the sector is starkly illustrated by two of the indicators that we will now look at. The first of these charts shows the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index, going back 7 years. On this chart we can see that only on two other occasions in the history of this indicator has sentiment towards gold stocks hit rock bottom at 0% as it has in recent weeks – once late in 2008 when the sector bottomed at the trough of the broad market crash and again in the middle of 2013, after which there was a rally before prices ran off sideways for over a year. When you get readings this low it basically means that there is no-one left to turn negative, and no-one left to sell. By itself this bodes well for the sector.

In further support of the contention that we are at or close to a major low is the 20-year chart for the ratio of the large stocks XAU index over gold which is at record low levels. The rationale behind this being bullish is simple to understand – when investors are fearful towards the sector and negative on it, they favor bullion over stocks, because they figure that while stocks can go to zero, bullion cannot, and they are right about that. What they are not right about is being fearful when everybody else is fearful – which means there’s no-one else left to get scared and sell, as is the case now. When this ratio is at a negative extreme as now, it means that the mob are extremely and universally negative – and that has to be bullish. Right now this ratio is at astoundingly low levels – way below the levels it was at late in 2000, right before the start of the great gold and silver bullmarket, and at the depths of the 2008 market crash – Precious Metals stocks have already crashed and are friendless.

Finally we have another powerful indication that the sector is bottoming in the volume pattern of junior mining stocks, expressed collectively in the form of the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, GDXJ, whose 4-year chart is shown below. On this chart we can see that volume in GDXJ has ramped exponentially all this year to extreme levels, that must signify a bottom, because the sellers must by definition be “dumb” because they are obviously selling at a massive loss – so who is doing all the buying, taking the other side of the trade? – Smart Money, that’s who. The enormous recent volume in this is evidence of a massive transfer of stock from weak to strong hands, and since the new buyers are not going to sell until they have turned a profit, it is easy to understand that immediately an uptrend takes hold, new buyers are going to find no stock available and will have to drive prices sharply higher to get their orders filled.

Does this mean that most junior miners will survive? – sadly, it doesn’t – hundreds of junior mining companies can be expected to fail next year – it’s too late for rising stock prices to save many of them. What the volume in GDXJ is telling us is that Smart Money is looking beyond the cull to the New Dawn that will follow, when the better junior miners, especially those that are in production or close to going into production, will reap the benefits of having hunkered down and pulled through a very difficult time, which will be magnified by the extra savings resulting from low oil prices, with fuel being a major component of mining industry costs.
The worries about deflation dragging the sector further into the mud are a “red herring” – gold does well during deflationary times as old timers like Richard Russell will recall from the experience of the 30’s. So if we do see deflation, it should not prove to be a problem for the sector.
Finally, end of year tax loss selling will be over this week, so we are at a good point for a sector rally to start, as was the case last year.
The conclusion to all this is that we appear to be at an excellent point to buy the better mining stocks, and you shouldn’t have to wait too long before investments in the sector start to pay off.

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Dec 31 When Fearmongering Goes Bad: Greece Scrambles To Prevent Deposit Run Goldman Warned About In Its "Worst Case" ZeroHedge

When Fearmongering Goes Bad: Greece Scrambles To Prevent Deposit Run Goldman Warned About In Its "Worst Case"

Earlier today we got a classic, if rare, example of what happens when bankers bluff with a 2-7 off suit... and the people call it.
Recall that just over two weeks ago, none other than Greek currency swap expert Goldman (alongside Jean-Claude Juncker who quite explicitly warned Greeks not "to vote wrong") came out with a fire and brimstone worst-case scenario for Greece, which was nothing but an attempt at fearmongering designed to scare Greek MPs into doing Samaras' bidding, in which it said not electing the designated presidential candidate may lead to a worst-case scenario which involves a "Cyprus-style prolonged bank holiday."
For those who have forgotten, these were the salient points from Goldman:

In the event that the parliament fails to elect a president, general elections would be held and market uncertainty/pressures would extend. At this stage it is important to understand that market pressures are not linked to the democratic process of elections nor to a potential government change, whatever the ensuing government formation may be. They are linked to the risk of policy discontinuity and a severe clash between Greece and international lenders. More specifically, we think the room for Greece to meaningfully backtrack from the reforms that have already been implemented is very limited. Any such attempt would lead to an interruption of official financing to Greece.

Examining the downside scenario.

To be sure, even in the event of a government change, there is room for a cooperative solution between Greece and Europe. Greece has made significant reform progress between 2012 and the gap between what has already been implemented and what remains to be done is not insurmountable.

Also, the incentives for a clash are not there. For instance any Greek government would likely want to capitalize on the momentum that the economy is building on the activity front, rather than trigger a disruptive capital flight that would lead Greece to a double–dip recession. In addition, given that more than 80% of Greek debt is held by the official sector and given that any OSI would be feasible only as part of an agreement with the Euro-area, there is an incentive for a Greek government to pursue cooperative solutions.

However, the history of the Euro-area crisis has shown that the probability of an “accident” can never be dismissed, when it comes to intra-EMU politics. And it is important for markets to be able to understand and quantify the aspects of a potential downside scenario, where official financing to Greece is interrupted.

The Biggest Risk is an Interruption of the Funding of Greek Banks by The ECB.

Pressing as the government refinancing schedule may look on the surface, it is unlikely to become a real issue as long as the ECB stands behind the Greek banking system. In fact, refinancing became a lot more pressing between 2011 and 2012. But financing needs were met despite the impasse in negotiations between Greece and international lenders – partly via the issuance of T-bills repoable at the ECB by Greek banks. Such methods can always be revisited at times of extreme need.

But herein lies the main risk for Greece. The economy needs the only lender of last resort to the banking system to maintain ample provision of liquidity. And this is not just because banks may require resources to help reduce future refinancing risks for the sovereign. But also because banks are already reliant on government issued or government guaranteed securities to maintain the current levels of liquidity constant.

And this risk can become more pressing from a timing perspective. At the heat of the Greek crisis, there was evident deposit and broader capital flight, which Greek banks helped accommodate with ECB’s help via the ELA facility. In the event of a severe Greek government clash with international lenders, interruption of liquidity provision to Greek banks by the ECB could potentially even lead to a Cyprus-style prolonged “bank holiday”. And market fears for potential Euro-exit risks could rise at that point.

Stripping all the political correctness, what Goldman said is that unless Greece quickly folds back in line and does as unelected Brussels eurocrats demand, there may well be a Cyprus-style bank closure coupled with preemptied bank runs.
Oops. Because if that was the doubled-down bluff, then Greece just called it, and the "downside scenario" is now in play.
Which means Greece now has to scramble to avoid precisely what Goldman warned would happen if the Greeks dared to put their (meagre) savings at risk. And, case in point, here is the Greek finance minister rushing to squash the next steps, which - as Goldman so conveniently explained - involve potential bank runs, a potential bank holiday, and potential Cyprusing of the financial system, only this time it is not Russian oligarchs who are most exposed - they have learned their lessons by now - by ordinary Greeks.
Here is Newsbomb.gr with what is sure to be an amusing backtracking on all the fearmongering that had been unleashed previously.

The government has guaranteed that bank accounts are safe and legislated deposit safeguards in the event of a shakeup ahead of Monday's parliamentary election for Greek president, Finance Minister Gikas Hardouvelis said in an interview on Sunday's Vima.

Hardouvelis was speaking ahead of the third and last attempt by this Parliament to elect a Greek president that will held on Monday, December 29. Failure to elect one
"We are preparing to withstand any rolling and pitching. We have already passed laws safeguarding bank deposits, and are in constant touch with our EU fellow-members, while the whole government will be on alert and vigilant," Hardouvelis said.

Hardouvelis said that Greece must continue "to the next stage, which will be based on our growth plan, under our own initiative, without coercion by the troika of Greece's lenders."

Speaking of "bank deposits, which are safe," he said his ministry had "taken care this past week and legislated the option of the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund's to lend money to the Hellenic Deposit and Investment Guarantee Fund if it needs greater reserves than those available to support depositors."

Asked whether he thought that a new government might be elected with a stance hostile to the memorandum, the finance minister replied, "The key to avoid tossing and turning and our economy's future in 2015 and later is held by the European Central Bank... This key can easily and abruptly be used to block funding to banks and therefore strangle the Greek economy in no time at all."

Actually no.
The ECB's hands are tied right now, because the last thing Mario Draghi can do is proceed with open monetization of peripheral bonds (which would have to be purchased in any ECB public QE alongside all other Eurozone bonds) at a time when Greece can pull the rug from under the ECB's already massive holdings of Greek public debt, and enforce a haircut which would impair the ECB's balance sheet, in the process costing Mario Draghi his job and a handing the victory to the "sound money" Bundesbank on a silver platter.
Worse, should Greece decide to default it would means those several hundred billion Greek bonds currently held in official accounts would go from par to worthless overnight, leading to massive unaccounted for impairments on Europe's pristine balance sheets, which also confirms that Greece once again has all the negotiating leverage.
So with the ECB out of the picture, and with the ball in Greece's court, it actually makes the situation that much more unstable, and indeed could be just the precursor to the "Cyprus-style bank holiday" that Goldman warned about.
How credible will this warning be in practical terms over the next month as Greece prepares for a historic election? Keep an eye on those lines in front of ATMs, because unlike Cyprus, at least the Greeks still have access to Euros. The question is will they pull out enough Euros before their only currency option in front of the ATM is New Drachmas?

 

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The 6 PM Recap With Gary Wagner: You Say Stop And I Say Go Go Go

You Say Stop And I Say Go Go Go

Tuesday December 30, 2014 18:03

So, sang the Beatles back in the day. They had a point about contradictory flows of feeling and thought, just as we have now in the precious metals markets.
End-of-year fear came scuttling out of the woodwork today, driving equities down and gold up. Even crude oil found something under its feet other than quicksand today.
Risk aversion is common among year-end investors, especially given the long holiday period when no certain trading patterns can expect to hold steady. Short-players also encouraged gold to rise more than $20 in the morning session. It has now backed off those highs and is trading up about $16

There are a few worries globally. Greece and its newest debt crisis are yet again nagging at EU cohesiveness. In general, any kind of debt crisis throws shivers into traders, but Greece’s problems are very persistent and could lead to further cracks in the union’s façade. And that’s what really worries the financial world.
Other worries include the bubbling Western/Russian conflict and fears about the Middle East and south Asia overall. 
Economically, many analysts are worrying about the ability of the American economy to act solely as the engine to pull the freight train of the rest of the world through a dicey period of poor growth.
Even though the range is fairly wide, gold is trading in one, and it jumps up against 1210 and then hovers just above 1180.
George Gero of RBC made an interesting observation, too, about how funds are "window dressing" their books in the final days of the year, since some are under-invested in gold.
Who knows what investors will be thinking tomorrow? From a strictly fundamental viewpoint, gold is trading approximately the way it should, slightly jumpy and range bound.
Wishing you as always, good trading,
Gary Wagner

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INFOGRAPHIC: Buried Treasure Discovered In 2014

By Neils Christensen
Tuesday December 30, 2014 1:43 PM Looking back, 2014 could be classified as the year of recovered buried treasure as six discoveries made international headlines throughout the year.
One of the biggest buried treasure stories this year was Odyssey Marine, who focus on deep ocean exploration, resuming salvage operations of the SS Central America, which was halted for 23 years as the 1988 discovery was mired in legal disputes. In its first dive the company recovered more than 1,000 ounces of gold. The company said that more than 15,500 gold and silver coins were recovered during this year’s salvage operation.
Another interesting story caught people’s attention because of its intrigue and deception. In early December, four workers in a village in southern India were hired to dig a hole and found a pot of ancient gold. A police investigation started after one of the workers took a coin to a pawn shop to get it appraised. After the investigation, the police turned over more than 600 coins to Archaeology Survey of India.
A third story of buried treasure that captured people’s attention occured early in the year, as a couple from northern California came across about 1,430 mint-condition rare historical gold coins dating from the mid-to-late 1800s. One of the coins in the hoard was an 1866 Double Eagle gold coin, valued at $1 million.
What peaked public interest in the story was that after news broke, speculation started to grow that these coins were from a heist of the San Francisco Mint at the turn of the century. The speculation and rumors were put to rest after the Mint released a statement saying that there was no link between the coins and “any thefts at any U.S Mint facility.”

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Greece Warned Political Turmoil May Hurt Credit Rating

Associated Press
Tuesday December 30, 2014 6:38 AM

ATHENS, Greece (AP) — Credit rating agency Fitch said Tuesday that prolonged political uncertainty in Greece could hurt its sovereign rating, while the country's deputy prime minister claimed a stalemate could leave Greeks with "no economy."
The warnings came a day after a snap general election was called for Jan. 25 — and despite an easing of initial market turmoil.
Fitch said it was unclear whether any single party would be able to form a government alone, a stalemate that would "increase the risks to Greece's creditworthiness." It also cited risks of further delays to bailout negotiations and a potential drop in bank deposits.
"Following the elections ... political and policy uncertainty will probably remain high for some months," Fitch said.
The agency currently lists Greece under a B rating, which is still below investment grade, following a slow climb back from the brink of default.
On Tuesday, conservative Prime Minister Antonis Samaras formally requested that Parliament be dissolved following the failure by lawmakers to elect Greece's new president after three rounds of voting.
"Greece's position in Europe is at stake. This is a struggle of the highest responsibility, for the future of our children," Samaras said after making the request.
An opinion poll published late Monday gave the anti-bailout Syriza party a three-point lead over Samaras' New Democracy party — indicating that neither leading party could govern without forming a coalition.
Samaras' Socialist coalition partner, Deputy Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos, said a repeat of successive general elections that occurred in 2012 would cause a full return to crisis.
"We don't have the luxury of a second general election," he said. "We must have a government on Jan. 26. Otherwise, there'll be no economy, no country."
Syriza has described the government remarks as alarmist.
"The government fell because of its failed policies and under the weight of a social outcry" against growing poverty and unemployment, a party statement said.
Shares on the Athens Stock Exchange were down less that 0.5 percent lower in late trading, broadly in line with other European markets.

Copyright 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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Chinese Consumers Take Advantage Of November's Low Gold Prices As Imports Rise

Gold prices appear to be ending the year in neutral territory, and Asian demand continues to be the bright spot within the marketplace. Monday, Reuters reported that China’s gold imports from Hong Kong in November rose to their highest level since February. Analysts have expected to see strong demand for the yellow metal in Asia, as the Lunar New Year approaches. This year Lunar New Year will be celebrated Feb. 18 and gold is given as a traditional gift during the holiday.
The rise in imports also coincides with gold prices dropping to their lowest point in four-and-a-half years. On Nov. 7 Comex December gold futures dropped to a low of 1,130.40.
In a recent interview with Kitco News, Victor Thianpiriya, commodity strategist at ANZ Bank, one of the first international banks to be allowed to import gold into China, explained that gold imports have been relatively low throughout 2014 because there was already a large stockpile in China from 2013.
However, with most of the stockpiles being depleted, he said that he is expecting to see a pickup in Chinese imports in 2015. He noted that increased imports in 2015 should help to stabilize gold prices.
Thianpiriya also said lower prices could have a limited impact on Asian gold demand in the near-term. Prices would probably have to fall to $1,000 an ounce before consumers started buying gold in large quantities, similar to 2013, he said.
He explained that investors are waiting for the gold market to resume its uptrend before jumping back into the market.
Currently, Comex February gold future prices are hovering around the $1,200 an ounce area. As of 9:17 a.m. EST, February gold was trading at $1,197.20 an ounce. Steve Scacalossi, director, head of sales of global metals at TD Securities said in a research note Tuesday, the news of continued demand out of China is helping to stabilize the gold market as it closes out the year.

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U.S. Consumer Confidence Rises To 92.6 In December

Updated: U.S. Consumer Confidence Rises To 92.6 In December

Tuesday December 30, 2014 10:00 AMThe Christmas holidays created a little cheer for U.S. consumers as optimism rose in December, reversing some of the declines seen in November, according to data from the U.S. Conference Board.  The board said its monthly Consumer Confidence Index rose to 92.6 from November’s revised reading of 91.0. In its initial reading, last month’s index was at 88.7.
Some economists anticipated a boost in optimism; according to consensus forecasts, economists expected the index to rise to about 94.6.
In the report, the board said that the Present Situation Index rose to 98.6, up from the previous reading of 93.7, but at the same time the Expectations Index fell to 88.5, from November’s reading of 89.3.
“Consumer confidence rebounded modestly in December, propelled by a considerably more favorable assessment of current economic and labor market conditions. As a result, the Present Situation Index is now at its highest level since February 2008,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board.
Although the data shows that optimism was generally positive, the current outlook of the labor market was relatively mixed. According to the board’s survey, participants who said jobs were “plentiful” increased to 17.1% from the previous survey of 16.2%; at the same time, participants who said jobs were “hard to get” fell to 27.7% from the previous level of 28.7%.
Similar to the overall report, the future outlook for the labor market was slightly weaker as participants who said that they anticipated more jobs in the months ahead dropped to 14.7%, compared to the previous survey of 15.5%. Participants who said that they anticipated fewer jobs in the future increased to 16.9% from 16.4%.
Eric Green, head of U.S. rates and economic research at TD Securities described the consumer report as “positive with a few wrinkles.”

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Dec 30 Oil: Lubrication For Gold Stocks Rally Stewart Thomson

Oil: Lubrication For Gold Stocks Rally

Stewart Thomson

Dec 30, 2014

1. Gold is ending the year on a solid note. The bears promised that 2014 would be a horrible year for gold. Many bank economists predicted “double digit declines”.
   
   
2. None of their shrill predictions have come to pass. That’s because the gold bears overestimated supply from the West, and underestimated demand from China and India.
   
   
3. Please click here now. That’s the hourly bars chart for gold. I believe there is now an inverse head and shoulders bottom in play, and the short term price target of that pattern is the $1220 area.
   
   
4. Early yesterday morning, I told my subscribers that I expected gold would decline to the $1180 area to form the right shoulder of the pattern, and rally from there during the night.
   
   
5. That’s what happened. Regardless, gold price enthusiasts should understand that chart and cycle targets are not financial guarantees. They are indications of what is possible and likely.
   
   
6. As the year 2014 ends and 2015 begins, gold is postured quite bullishly, from both a fundamental and technical standpoint.
   
   
7. Please click here now. That’s the daily gold chart. The 14,7,7 Stochastics oscillator is now in an area where rallies of $50 - $150 in the price of gold often occur.
   
   
8. Please click here now. China officially imported almost 100 tons of gold in November, and Hong Kong imported about 50 tons.
   
   
9. As Reuters notes, direct imports into the Chinese mainland from countries other than Hong Kong are not revealed by China. The total tonnage imported into China and Hong Kong during November was likely somewhat higher than 150 tons, but even if they imported no gold directly at all, the demand is excellent.
   
   
10. India also officially imported about 150 tons in November. Clearly, Chindian demand is once again robust, and growing!
    
    
11. As the centres of gold price discovery move from London and New York to Shanghai and Dubai, the price action should mainly revolve around the love trade (gold jewellery).
    
    
12. Until 2014 began, the fear trade (Western debt and the outrageous behaviour of government and banks) was the main mechanism of gold price discovery. In my professional opinion, gold price volatility will diminish significantly as the love trade overshadows the fear trade.
     
13. The “shock and awe” growth of the Indian and Chinese economies is relentless. That means the growing dominance of the love trade on the global gold price discovery stage, is probably best described as a “clock that can’t be turned back”.
    
    
14. As terrible as the gold bears were at predicting the price of gold in 2014, if they keep failing to study the Chindian love trade for gold in meticulous detail, their price projections will go much more awry in 2015, than they did in 2014.
     
15. Gold stocks are prime beneficiaries of the Chindian gold bull era. Please click here now. That’s the GDX daily chart, and it suggests that gold stocks could begin the new year with a solid rally.
    
    
16. A “textbook” double bottom pattern is in play. These patterns tend to be quite reliable.
    
    
17. Please click here now. This GDXJ chart is very similar to the GDX chart. The double bottom pattern suggests that GDXJ could rally to the $40 area in early 2015.
    
    
18. Also, GDXJ has been restructured. It now holds more producing gold companies, and that may reduce some of the volatility it experienced in the past.
    
    
19. Silver looks even more bullish than gold does, and I’ve recently swapped a modest amount of my gold bullion for silver.
    
    
20. Please click here now.  There’s a nice inverse head and shoulders bottom in play on this daily silver chart.
    
    
21. Some individual silver stocks have the same pattern, and they have already staged strong volume-based breakouts to the upside. The stocks tend to lead silver, and they are supporting my thesis that silver itself is poised for a great rally early in 2015. My short term price target is $19.
    
    
22. Please click here now. That’s the hourly bars chart for oil. I have a $49 short term target for oil. The outlook for oil is grim, both in the short term and the long term.
    
    
23. In the short term, supply is overwhelming demand, and oil company earnings are suffering. In the long term, alternative energy is likely to reduce oil’s function to that of a useful lubricant, from the key fuel that it is now. In the coming decades, I expect the price of oil to ultimately return to pre-1973 levels.
    
    
24. Gold mining companies are entering 2015 with robust demand from China and India, and with a very stable outlook for fuel costs. This situation should entice substantial numbers of value-oriented fund managers into the sector, throughout the year!

Dec 30, 2014
Stewart Thomson

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Dec 30 Gold Rallies With USD Above 90 Przemyslaw Radomski

Gold & Silver Trading Alert:
Gold Rallies With USD Above 90

Przemyslaw Radomski
Posted Dec 30, 2014

Gold & Silver Trading Alert originally published on December 29th, 2014 7:17 AM:

Briefly: In our opinion no speculative short positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are currently justified from the risk/reward perspective.
The USD Index moved slightly above the key, long-term resistance level but gold rallied by almost $20 on Friday. We have seen several bearish signs in the precious metals market recently – is the above bullish enough to make the overall outlook for the precious metals market bullish?
Not really. Gold didn’t move above the previous resistance levels, so actually not much changed and most of what we wrote last week remains up-to-date. Let’s start today’s analysis with the USD Index (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

In the previous alert we wrote the following:
The USD Index moved higher only insignificantly, and we don’t see much change on the short-term chart. One could argue whether there was a short-term breakout or not, but even if we agree that there indeed was one, it’s not confirmed. Consequently, the short-term picture doesn’t provide us with much new information.
The USD Index closed the week above 90 and also above the rising short-term resistance line, so the short-term breakout is confirmed. The implications for the next several days are bullish.
Let’s take a look at the situation in the USD Index from the very long-term perspective.

In the previous alert we wrote the following:
The USD Index has just encountered a major resistance line that it needs to surpass before a rally to 92 becomes very probable – the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels based on the entire 2002 – 2008 decline.
The Fibonacci retracements have worked for the USD Index many times in the past, so it could be the case that this level will keep the rally in check for some time. If not, and we see a confirmed breakout, then we’ll likely see another big rally – to the 92 level or perhaps even to the next retracement at 96.11.
However, we would first need to see the breakout and its confirmation. For now, we have just seen a move to this critical level. While the situation in the precious metals market remains bearish, without a breakout in the USD Index, the possibility of another slide in the USD and a rally in gold, silver and mining stocks will be too big for us to think that opening short positions in the precious metals sector is justified from the risk to reward perspective.
The USD Index closed the week above the critical resistance level (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level), but it closed only a little above it and for just one day, so the breakout is not confirmed at this time. Consequently, we don’t think that the move to 92 or higher is very probable for the USD Index at present. The implications for the precious metals market remain rather unclear at this time.

The long-term picture for gold remains unchanged. Last week’s events didn’t change much as gold ended the week below $1,200 and well below the declining resistance line. The medium-term trend remains down.

The short-term price action didn’t change much either. The previously-mentioned self-similar pattern could still be in place – the current situation is still somewhat similar to what we saw in January 2014. This means that based on the above chart alone we could see a rally in the coming days.
Please note that gold rallied on very low volume, but that was a low-volume session across the board due to the Holiday season. Consequently, while a low-volume rally would be a bearish sign in a normal case, at this time there are no such implications.
Moreover, there was a buy signal from the Stochastic indicator, which of course is a bullish sign, but on the other hand, there was no breakout above the declining red resistance line.
Overall, the above chart is more bullish than it was last week, but not bullish enough to justify opening long positions based just on it.

When we take a look at the gold market from the gold to USD Index ratio perspective, we’ll see that the recent rally was nothing more than a verification of a breakdown below the 2013 low and 2008 high. With this breakdown being confirmed, we can expect to see a move lower shortly.

The silver market moved higher in the last session and we saw a breakout, but let’s not forget that “breakouts” in silver have very often turned out to be “fakeouts” and followed by sharp declines. The most recent example took place at the beginning of December. Overall, the breakout in silver has no bullish implications in our opinion.

Gold stocks and silver stocks (the XAU Index includes both) didn’t move much lower last week, but they didn’t move much higher either. Overall, the last few weeks of trading seem to be simply a pause within a big decline. If the move that follows the current consolidation is similar to the one that preceded it, we could actually see mining stocks at their 2000 lows.
Could we really see such a significant decline in the mining stocks sector? Why not, it would be less than half of what the miners have already declined since 2010. Besides, the entire commodity sector could move even lower.

The CCI Index (proxy for the commodity sector) has definitely broken and verified the breakdown below important support levels: the rising very long-term support line, the declining long-term one, and the one based on the previous lows. The index has moved well below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire 2001 – 2011 bull market. It’s now likely to decline to the 50% or even the 61.8% retracement. The latter seems even more likely as that’s where the commodities declined in 2008 (back then the retracement was based on the 2008 top) – the CCI Index even moved a bit below this level and then started to rally once again.
Overall, the situation is still unclear as there are several factors that point to a looming decline in the precious metals, but there are also some important signs suggesting higher values of PMs – like the critical resistance in the USD Index.
It seems that another trading opportunity is just around the corner and even though not much seems to be going on, it might be that paying close attention to the precious metals market at this time and in the coming days will be well worth it. It might be the case that the USD Index manages to rally shortly and confirms the breakout above its key resistance. If that takes place, it will likely create a great entry point for short positions in the precious metals market. However, we are not at that point yet and other factors will need to be considered as well. As always, we'll keep our subscribers updated should our views on the market change. We will continue to send them our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts on each trading day and we will send additional ones whenever appropriate. If you'd like to receive them, please subscribe today or sign up for our free mailing list today.
To summarize:
Trading capital (our opinion): No positions
Long-term capital (our opinion): No positions
Insurance capital (our opinion): Full position
You will find details on our thoughts on gold portfolio structuring in the Key Insights section on our website.
Thank you.

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Dec 30 Five crucial things to know about the snap Greek elections

Five crucial things to know about the snap Greek elections 

LONDON (MarketWatch) — The third time is not a charm when it comes to Greek politics.
Once again, the country finds itself at the epicenter of a political and economic drama after the parliament on Monday — for the third time in two weeks — rejected Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s preferred presidential candidate.
The failure to line up sufficient backing for former European Commissioner Stavros Dimas in the third and final round of voting has triggered snap elections that could bring the far-left, euroskeptic formation Syriza into power and threaten to derail Greece’s bailout program. In fact, words like “Grexit” and “default” and “accident” are once more being thrown around among nervous market observers.
Expect daily headlines on Greece leading up to the elections and lots of volatility in the financial markets. To stay on top, here are the five key things to know ahead of the parliamentary elections as an investor.

Which parties should I watch for?

Anti-austerity and anti-bailout Syriza, behind charismatic leader Alexis Tsipras, could hold the key to Greece’s future as a member of the eurozone. The party is ahead in opinion polls, and Tsipras appears confident he’ll emerge as prime minister after the elections.
“Be optimistic and cheerful,” he reportedly proclaimed after the presidential vote on Monday. “Austerity will soon be over. The Samaras government, which looted society and decided to take further austerity measures, is finished.”
Syriza has spent years campaigning against the harsh austerity measures imposed on Greece in exchange for the international rescue program and is eager to renegotiate the bailout terms with its international creditors — the so-called troika, composed of the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund — sooner rather than later. A major concern is that Syriza and the troika won’t be able to reach new bailout terms, which could force Greece into a disorderly default. The four-year bailout was set to stop at the end of December but was extended by two months to allow Greece more time meet demands from its international lenders.
The other major party in the election is current Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s center-right New Democracy. The party emerged as the winner in Greece’s last national elections in June 2012 and has as the leader of the coalition government been in charge of the reforms and austerity measures agreed to under the bailout program. However, with unemployment painfully high and economic growth painfully low, Greeks have increasingly turned against the governing coalition with calls for an end to austerity.

What are the risks of a Greek default or a euro exit?

With polls pointing to a Syriza win, the fear of Greece leaving the eurozone is back on the table. Although the party has moderated its anti-euro rhetoric, there remains concern that the drive to end austerity above everything else could cost Greece its membership in the currency union.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, puts at 55% the probability that Syriza “would push Greece into a serious crisis that — with money running out and neither the troika nor the ECB in any position to help — could potentially catapult Greece into a messy default within the euro or even out of the euro.”

 

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What's Your Strategy - Full Coverage

2014 - A Breakthrough Year for Technology Metals

It is impossible to create a connected, mobile and sustainable society without technology metals (precious metals, specialty metals and rare earth elements) enabling it. Lithium stores energy in our rechargeable batteries; neodymium's magnetic properties run electric motors of which there are many in our lives; silver helps collect sunlight and turn it into renewable energy. Tech Metals Insider reported about these and many other applications throughout the year.

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The 6 PM Recap With Gary Wagner: Volatile Blahs

Volatile Blahs

Monday

Equities were up a small amount today amid cautious holiday trading, but the U.S. dollar continued its climb to supremacy, helping push gold lower. But the dollar doesn’t tell the whole story today for gold.
The chief outside market influence, crude oil, was down severely again, by around 2%. Gold was dragged down on that ride.
Thin trading also did not help gold, as a few major sales going into year’s end forced prices down. Investors are squaring up their books, taking their losses (or gains if the case might be), and exiting positions all over the place, except for equities, which, of course are much less volatile than commodities markets, trading, as they do, in factors rather than simple dollar gain and loss like stocks.
The news of Greek’s renewed shakiness wasn’t enough to goose gold upward. Most analysts, including us at the Gold Forecast, feel that Greece is a lost cause and it is already factored in to prices of various financial instruments. Greece may continue to harm the euro, which doesn’t seem to need any help with that currently. A sinking euro lowers gold prices in dollars.
Some support was seen in physical gold as we approach the Chinese Lunar New Year, a favorite time for buying in the huge country. Other than that, consumption of the actual metal is soft.
While technical support was threatened today, the decline in gold didn’t crash through our previously delineated levels - more on that in Market Forecast.
As might be expected at this time of year, international news is slow so there were no big new factors that might lend support to gold as a haven play.
Wishing you as always, good trading,

Gary Wagner

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Gold Ends Lower As Dollar Continues To Strengthen - Alliance

Gold Ends Lower As Dollar Continues To Strengthen

Monday
 

WASHINGTON ( Alliance News ) - Gold futures ended lower on Monday, tracking rising equity markets with the dollar trending higher against a select band of currencies. There was little or no significant economic releases for cues, with investors upbeat over an improving US economy.
Nevertheless, trading volumes are expected to remain thin during the week, ahead of the New Year.
After some strong data recently, including a report showing US gross domestic product to have grown much more than expected in the third quarter, the prospects of a rate hike next year seem to get more definite with the greenback continuing to gain consistently against most major currencies. A higher interest rate supports the dollar and is a drag on gold.
Greece was once again pushed into a political crisis on Monday after the parliament failed to elect presidential candidate, Stavros Dimas , paving the way for a snap general election early 2015. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras' candidate, Dimas - a former European Commissioner and the only candidate in the fray, was rejected by a vote of 162 in favor and 132 against, but woefully short of the required 180 votes in the 300 member house.
This could mean a snap general election for the economically beleaguered country, which analysts feel could go in favor of the leftist Syriza party that is extremely opposed to the austerity measures suggested by the EU and the International Monetary Fund .
Gold for February delivery, the most actively traded contract, dropped USD13.40 or about 1.1% to settle at USD1,181.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange on Monday.
Gold for February delivery scaled an intraday high of USD1,197.50 and a low of USD1,178.60 an ounce.
Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, edged lower to 712.30 tons on Monday, from its previous close of 712.90 tons .
The dollar index, which tracks the US unit against six major currencies, traded at 90.20 on Monday, up from its previous close of 90.05 late Friday in North American trade. The dollar scaled a high of 90.22 intraday and a low of 89.79.
The euro trended lower against the dollar at USD1.2157 on Monday, as compared to its previous close of USD1.2181 late Friday in North American trade. The euro scaled a high of USD1.2220 intraday and a low of USD1.2144.
In economic news, Switzerland's consumption indicator dropped slightly in November as fewer car sales weighed on spending, data from UBS showed Monday. The Swiss consumption index dropped to 1.29 in November from 1.32 in October. Although weak car sales were a drag on consumption, Christmas retail business has apparently made a good start.
Among data due this week are the consumer confidence index for December from the Conference Board, the weekly jobless claims, the National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index for November and the results of the Institute for Supply Management's national and MNI Indicators' regional manufacturing surveys.
The S&P Case-Shiller house price index for October, Markit's final US manufacturing index for December and the Commerce Department's construction spending data for November will also be out during the course of the week.

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Quiet For Now, But EU Clouds Forming - by Peter Hug

Quiet For Now, But EU Clouds Forming

Monday 

Gold continues to meander into the last trading days of 2014, as both the dollar and oil appear to have stabilized into year-end. Greece will once again be on everyone’s radar, as the Greeks failed to elect a new President. This opens the door for a snap election where the outcome could result in Greek voters picking a leader who may abandon the current austerity program and raise doubts about Greece’s membership in the EU. This could turn into a significant story for early 2015, which may create some safe-haven flows into the metals from the EU investor block. Although the market remains thin on participation, we have three full trading days in front of us and volatility may increase into year-end positioning.

By Peter Hug
Global Trading Director

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Dec 29 SSSSS This past week in gold Jack Chan

This past week in gold

Jack Chan

GLD – on sell signal.

***

SLV – on sell signal.
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GDX – on sell signal.
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XGD.TO – on sell signal.
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CEF – on sell signal.

***

Divergences between gold and gold stocks often lead to trend changes.

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Dec 29 Gold's Mega-Move Days Have Turned Bullish Demeadville

“Gold's Mega-Move Days Have Turned Bullish”


In bidding adieu (or if you prefer, a not-so-Golden good riddance) to 2014, 'tis said that those who've "manipulated" the price of Gold lower shall be the same entities which shall "manipulate" it back up. To the extent that the price of Gold is or is not "manipulated", (as long as we can engage fairly and equitably in a like trading platform and have enough size ourselves to shove price about manually and/or algorithmically), we've got some very heartening news to share in closing out what has not so much been a down year for the yellow metal, (as 'tis on target to finish just either side of the 1205 "break-even "level), but instead a year that has been perpetually annoying. With only three trading days remaining in 2014, 'tis at this juncture incidental as to whether Gold nets out an up or down year: for far more material either way is the above scoreboard's telling us just how alarmingly low price is relative to the growth in our money supply these last 30 years.
However, here's the heartening bit: be they "manipulators" and/or legitimate trading forces sufficiently capitalized to hoover away hundreds of bids or offers in an electronic heartbeat, we've ferreted out data which is indicative of them having changed their tune from selling/shorting Gold to now buying it, or if you'd prefer, that the upside "manipulative" rumblings are at last underway. To the naked eye, such activity is sufficiently stealth so as not to notice it: but to a measurable degree, we've sussed it out, or at the very least, found evidence of Gold's price now being protectively supported. And as odd, indeed sparse or incomplete as the following chart may at first glance appear, 'tis showing us the market moving powers that be are shifting back into buy mode:

"Uh, mmb, like Ricky said, Lucy you got some 'splainin' to do..."
Absolutely, Squire. What you're looking at above are Gold's intra-day price movements for the 250 trading days now in the books for 2014: except visibly there are only six bars across the entirety of the chart. Why? Because we've eliminated every day which traced a trading range of less than 40 points between its session's high and low so as to only cite Gold's "mega-move" days. And more importantly, here's the best part: the colour of those six robust bars describes the directional thrust of those mega-moves: Red for down-thrust, and Gold for up-thrust.
To be sure, 'twould be beyond the extremes of arrogance to believe that which we pen influences market direction; we likely more oft are considered a contrary indicator. But with respect to the above chart and its cluster of three up mega-moves just in these last two months, they curiously occurred with our introducing The Gold Update Scoreboard which now opens these weekly missives. Coincidence?
"Absolutely, mmb."
Squire's brutal honesty notwithstanding, let us press on to the graphic of Gold's weekly bars, wherein we see the parabolic trend having survived its fourth week to the LongSide, as indicated by the ascending blue dots. The descending dashed trendline across the chart belies just how near Gold is to actually closing out 2014 as a "break-even" year, 2013 settling at 1204.8 and now yesterday (Friday) at 1196.1, again with but three remaining trading days in the balance. Further note that despite the absence of a rare "mega-day" this past week, price still scampered up to close near its bar's high:

Of course, Sister Silver, below in her own weekly bars chart, shan't be closing out 2014 anywhere near her 2013 settling price of 19.425, for in finishing the week yesterday at 16.085, the descending dashed trendline truly tells her tale of woe:

Don't take it too hard, Sis. You may be -17% year-to-date, but so identically is Cousin Copper, whilst your distant Uncle Oil is -44%! (Next week's missive in opening 2015 will present the final "BEGOS Markets Standings" for 2014).
Then there's the stock market, which in conveniently ignoring global asset price shrinkage, continues to bound merrily along, the S&P 500 setting all-time highs on a daily basis as 'tis complacently assumed 'twill do in perpetuity. We however, as you well know by now per our being seemingly forever on "crash-watch", see it quite differently. As our calculation of the S&P's price/earnings ratio closes in on 30x, (the current "live" reading being 29.4x), please excuse our implementation of even more common sense in pointing out that the S&P's MoneyFlow is hardly keeping pace with price's perennial rise. Here is their relationship regressed to an S&P-points basis over the past 63 trading days (one quarter) to date, indicative of price ascending sans volume, quite in contrary to the past week's in-depth ChiTrib piece entitled "Dow, S&P power to new records". Quite frankly, and rightly in tune with this 1977 hit by Jackson Browne, we see the S&P as "Running On Empty...":

And therefore from the stock market's standpoint as having participated in this December to Remember we're fully anticipating that 'twill be a capitulative January to Forget. And as goes January... Besides, let's face it: when you've the S&P trading at double the support of its earnings base, and the price of Gold valued at half its natural level given Dollar debasement alone, something soon will give, and I suspect for the markets 'twill be massive.
As for the chest-pounding "Dollar strength" crowd out there -- and yes the beloved Greenback's Index now for the first time since April 2006 is just above 90 (90.315) -- the Buck is currently up 3% from Gold's closing low day of the year (1140 on 05 November), whilst the yellow metal itself is nevertheless up 5% from same:

Still, StateSide we've the percentage of adults in their prime working years with full-time jobs near the lowest levels ever recorded, (per the Bureau of Labor Statistics as far back as 1986). In the Middle East, veteran Saudi Arabian Oil minister Ali "fake it on the give-and-go" al-Naimi stated that Oil's price is irrelevant to output decisions, the Saudi Finance Ministry then pledging to curb wages and sally forth with investments next year toward lessening the blow of the halved price of petroleum. Meanwhile over in Japan, for the first time with records having been collected since 1955, their savings rate has turned negative as the populous draw on their nest-eggs, despite inflation just having slipped to a 14-month low. Westward across the sea from there, China's industrial profits for November just fell by the largest amount in two years. And not to be outdone by such economically foundationless follies, Greece’s Parliament still has yet to elect a new President, which were the anti-austerity opposition to instead become empowered, could again bury Hellenic paper. All-in-all, a fairly good year-ending basket of Gold positives, non?
Which in turn gives us hope that 2015 shall be far better for Gold than this Year of Annoyance. With just the three trading days left, we close out 2014 with this final two-panel technical graphic. On the left we've Gold's daily bars for the past three months with the ever-attendant "Baby Blues" depicting 21-day linear regression trend consistency, which admittedly is waning, (and for those of you who read the daily Prescient Commentary, you've likely noted an open signal for Gold to trade down to 1164.1 per its daily Price Oscillator study having gone negative). On the right is Gold's 10-day Market Profile showing price just a point below trading resistance at 1197, with underlying, less participative support at 1178.

This ensuing holiday-shortened, boundless football bowls week is not without some key incoming economic data, including December's Chicago PMI reading on New Year's Eve and then in turn on Friday, the first trading day of 2015, the ISM Index. In the interim, please be safe out there: we want all of our great and valued readers riding along with us in the Great Gold Machine of 2015!
A Happy and Golden New Year to Us All!

Cheers!

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Could Platinum And Palladium Outperform Gold In 2015? - by Kira Brecht

Could Platinum And Palladium Outperform Gold In 2015?

There is a well-chronicled seasonal spreading strategy published by Moore Research Center Inc. (MRCI) that reveals how platinum futures historically have outpaced gold futures during the October through April period over the last 15 years.
That doesn't mean gold is set for a crash, but it does underscore a seasonal tendency for platinum to outperform gold during that time period.
Platinum is both a precious and an industrial metal. Industrial applications include wide use in automotive catalytic converters. Platinum is especially efficient in diesel engines. Diesel           is projected to overtake gasoline as the number one transportation fuel by 2010, according to research by ExxonMobil, which ultimately should support underlying demand for platinum in the industrial sector.
According to a BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report, the firm forecasts gold prices at $1,225 in 2015, with platinum at $1,438 and palladium at $925. Those represent healthy gains for both platinum and palladium from current levels—see the charts below.
All the metals are projected to continue to rise in 2016, with a forecast at $1,300 in gold, $1,600 in platinum and $1,000 in palladium. Farther out in 2021—the BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report forecasts continued gains with gold at $1,508, platinum at $2,001 and palladium at $1,053.
What are the key levels to watch now?
January platinum futures have carved out a type of "triple bottom" on the daily chart. See Figure 1 below. Strong support has formed in the $1,186 to $1,175 region. The key technical chart points are seen at Point A and Point B, the December swing high at $1,256 and the October 9 high at $1,294.80. It would take a strong rally through the $1,295 region to confirm a major bottom on the daily chart and open up the door to a strong rally move in the months ahead.

Shifting over to palladium, BofA Merrill Lynch research highlights palladium as a potential winner in 2015. "Palladium has been in deficit for years and as such has the strongest fundamentals in the metals complex. This gives a firm foundation for further price gains going forward," according to a BofA Merrill Lynch Global research note.
The palladium chart looks healthy and strong. Take a look at Figure 2 below, a monthly continuation chart of palladium futures.

Drilling down to a daily chart of palladium, the 2015 price target identified in the BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report leaves scope for a big rally ahead.

Bottom line? Gold may face some headwinds in 2015 amid U.S. dollar strength and tighter monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve, but longer-term targets still estimate higher prices for gold in the years ahead, along with strength in both platinum and palladium.

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Dec 28 Could Russia back its currency with gold?

Could Russia back its currency with gold?

Russia's government could still be pushed into using its gold reserves to bolster the falling ruble, currency experts have forecast.

Rumors last week that Russia was on the verge of selling its gold reserves were quashed with the news on Friday that it has continued to add to its holdings. However, John Butler, chief investment officer at Atom Capital, and Alasdair MacLeod, the head of research at online bullion exchange GoldMoney Foundation, believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin could bring the country onto some sort of "gold standard" to try to shore up its economy.

"It was (and still is) in Russia's power to adopt a gold standard," MacLeod told CNBC via email.

"There is no doubt that Russia and China, plus the other Eurasian states in their sphere of influence are all accumulating gold and the indications are they see it as central to replacing the U.S. dollar for cross border trade."

Whether Russia would actually decide to do it was another matter, said MacLeod, and expected the country's central bank to the lack the courage to act. However, he said that if Putin is "provoked sufficiently" he may judge it to be in Russia's best interests and could overpower any reluctant officials at the bank.
Read MoreShould America worry about a China-Russia axis?
"It is already in Russia's interest to cast itself off from inflating western currencies and to base their economy on sound money, aka gold," he said.

GP Kidd | Cultura | Getty Images

Countries that are indebted and provide substantial welfare for its citizens would be most threatened by any return to gold convertibility, according to MacLeod, who said Russia could therefore be building a "weapon of mass financial destruction."

The Nixon administration has been credited with originally breaking the link between gold and the dollar in the early 1970s amid surging inflation, rising costs from the Vietnam War, and an oil crisis.

Before that, fixed amounts of gold were directly convertible to the U.S. dollar and vice versa. That meant money supply theoretically was limited by the amount of gold backing it, and exchange rates were based on the difference in price for an ounce of gold between the dollar and a foreign currency.
Russia has been aggressively buying the commodity in recent years and has formed closer currency ties with neighboring China in the process. Russia's gold holdings rose to 38.2 million ounces as of December 1, according to a statement by the central bank on Friday. This was a rise from a figure of 37.6 million from the month before, and allayed fears that it had sold the precious metal for dollars so it could further rebalance the ruble. The Russian currency had a torrid week, plunging by more than 11 percent last Tuesday — its steepest intraday fall since 1998.

Jim Rickards, the senior managing director at Tangent Capital and who has written extensively on the subject, told CNBC via email that Russia will move to a gold-backed currency but believes that such a move could be a long way off.

Read More What Russia-China relations mean for the dollar

<p>Putin's speech seemed 'relatively calm'</p> <p>Commenting on the Putin's recent speech, Simon Quijano-Evans, head of EM research at Commerzbank, says the press conference started off "relatively calm" and that Putin appears to be trying to act on negotiating terms.</p>

"Russia will continue to acquire gold, but will need hard currency reserves also to bridge the gap between today's position and any future intentions," he said.

One major drawback for Russia is that the ruble is already heavily linked to the price of oil and a gold-backed currency would link it to a second commodity, according to Phoenix Kalen, the director of emerging markets strategy at Societe Generale.

Thus, this would hinder usage of the "freely" floating currency as a shock-absorbing mechanism for its economy, she said.

I think it's highly unlikely that Russia would move toward a gold-backed currency," she told CNBC via email.

"At this point in time, it may make more sense for Russia to accumulate gold reserves, as it would help the country to diversify away from U.S. assets, stay ahead of the U.S. monetary policy tightening cycle which may adversely impact U.S. Treasury holdings, and benefit from the inflation protection provided by gold assets."

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Dec 28 L@@K The Industry Catalogue of Gold Bars Worldwide

The Industry Catalogue of ...Gold Bars Worldwide  

Barb Moriarty

Years ago I purchased the most wonderful gold book I have ever seen:-

The Industry Catalogue of Gold Bars Worldwide, published by Grendon International Research PTY Ltd in 1998.

It was compiled by Nigel Desebrock and it is 344 pages of the most gorgeous photographs of the range of standard, innovative and unusual gold bars that were available, worldwide, in the 1990s. And is packed with details of the world's accredited refiners and bar manufacturers.

At AUD 279 (Ozzy dollars) it didn't come 'cheap,' but over the years, we have bought several copies of this amazing Catalogue for special people.

It is now available, until 31st December 2014 for AUD 175 (including courier delivery from Australia).

Order here: http://grendon.com.au/orderform.htm

More information and table of contents.

For those of you who do not feel comfortable ordering from the www, you can rest assured that your privacy and personal details will be respected 100 percent.

A human being will handle your order, and Brigida is lovely.

Please note that Brigida is located in Perth where the time is 13 hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time.

Barb Moriarty

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Dec 28 Miners Extremely Oversold as Tax Loss Selling Ends

Miners Extremely Oversold as Tax Loss Selling Ends

Another December and gold stocks have reached another extreme oversold condition. This was the case precisely 365 days ago and the precious metals complex, led by the miners rebounded strongly for nearly three months. A year later and the gold stocks are even more oversold. They’ve been in a bear market for more than three and a half years and in terms of price are very close to matching the worst bear market of all 1996-2000. Only time will tell if this is truly the end of the bear market but in any case miners have a shot to start 2015 off positively.
The following sentiment indicator was developed by sentimentrader.com. For various ETFs it considers options activity, fund flows, the discount to NAV and future volatility expectations. Like any indicator, it is only a single indicator and is best used in conjunction with other indicators. Interestingly, the Optix for GDX touched 27% two days ago. That is the lowest since GDX began trading in 2006.




Breadth indicators also indicate an extreme oversold condition in the miners. The bullish percentage index (% of stocks on a P&F buy signal) for the GDM index (forerunner to GDX) is currently at only 3% but was at 0% at last weeks low. It has only ticked 0% a handful of times in the past two years. Second, the percentage of stocks in the HUI trading above their 200-day moving average is currently 6% but was 0% at last weeks low. The last time both indicators were at 0% together (as they were last week) was in late 2008.
Here is a look at the updated bear analogs for the gold stocks. We use the Barron’s Gold Mining Index as it has the longest history. The current bear is in line with the 1996-2000 bear. After declining 69% over two and a half years that bear mounted a rebound that lasted over a year. That was followed by a decline to new lows. The current bear is down 68% and at this point on the scale is in the worst shape relative to all the other bears.



For further comparison to the 1996-2000 bear, consider the figures for the other indices. Then the XAU declined 73%. At its recent low it was down 73%. Then the HUI declined 83%. It’s been down as much as 77% in this bear. The GDM index has lost 75% in this bear market and 77% in the 1996-2000 bear market. Meanwhile, GDXJ has lost up to 86% in the current bear market.
As we noted last week, the miners appear to be holding their November low and have a tradeable setup. The HUI is trading between 155 and 175 while GDX is trading between 17 and 20. A short-term rally to resistance is definitely possible. Given the current extreme oversold condition, are the miners ready to rebound through resistance and rally the way they did last January? On the other hand, will the metals cooperate? After 2013 tax loss selling, GDXJ rebounded over 50% within two months. We are working hard to prepare subscribers for this opportunity. Consider learning more about our premium service which includes a report on our top 5 stocks to buy.

Good Luck!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

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