Monday, 19 January 2015

Martin Luther King Day  Holiday Schedule
 
PennTrade


Dear PennTrader,

All US markets will be closed on Monday, January 19, for Martin Luther King Day.

Canadian markets will not close, so PennTrade will remain open for your Canadian trades.

US markets will reopen on Tuesday and it will again be business as usual.

Thank you for using PennTrade.
Ron Nicklas
President

This past week in gold

Jack Chan


GLD – on buy signal.

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SLV – on buy signal.
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GDX – on buy signal.
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XGD.TO – on buy signal.
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CEF – on buy signal.
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Gold has poked above the 200ema again, prompting breakout calls from some analysts. In a bear market, time is ripe for short sellers to return at current level. And if gold has bottomed and a new bull market is born, price action and COT data will confirm that over the next few weeks.
Summary
Long term – on major sell signal since Mar 2012 when $HUI was at 550.
Short term – on buy signals.
Gold sector cycle – up as of 11/14.
A bear market rally is in progress.

COT data suggests lower metal prices overall going forward.

Swiss National Bank Intrigue

Mario Innecco


Despite the SNB's campaigning against the Swiss Gold Initiative late in 2014 and its assertion that a YES vote would interfere with the bank's policy of capping the franc versus the euro the financial world was rocked by the equivalent of a major earthquake on the 15th of January, 2015 as the SNB decided to do a U-turn and abandon the cap on the franc versus the euro.
We all know by now what happened to the Swiss franc on Thursday so I will focus on why I think the SNB shocked the financial world and in the process wiped out many highly leveraged foreign exchange traders and speculators. Why would the SNB change a policy that it had been adamantly protecting just recently?
I personally think that the continued weakness of the euro versus the dollar has put a great deal of pressure on the SNB as it continued to keep the cap on the franc as the dollar kept rising versus the euro. Even though the Swiss Gold Initiative failed to pass last November there has been political pressure on the SNB to stop inflating its balance sheet.
As a result it is my opinion that the SNB, not expecting the euro weakness of these last few months, decided to get out of a losing trade while it could. By lifting the the cap the SNB is basically saying it does not want to buy any more euros but at the same time it has hundreds of billions of euro paper on its balance sheet. With the ECB expected to announce a new QE program on Thursday the 22nd of January, 2015 I expect the SNB to be a keen seller of its euro assets in the months to come. What better way to sell its euro denominated government paper!
My expectation is that just like FDR the SNB will use its proceeds from selling its euro assets to buy gold. Back in the early 1930s the dollar was the Swiss franc of its day as European capital fled a failing financial system to the relative safety of the then gold backed dollar. This exodus from European currencies to the dollar exacerbated the deflationary economic environment in the U.S. FDR called a bank holiday in 1933 as a result and subsequently devalued the dollar by 75% by raising the official gold price from $20.67 to $35 in January of 1934.
By buying gold the SNB will alleviate the deflationary pressure that a strong currency brings. What better way to unload its mountain of euro assets and at the same time assuage its political foes at home.

The Doughty Swiss


Congratulations to the doughty Swiss, we say. The decision of their central bank to remove the cap on its currency, allowing it to soar against the Euro, is causing the foreign exchnge markets to be struck with the dreaded turbulence. It may well make things difficult for Switzerland in the short run. But it was a vote of no confidence in the quantitative easing that the European Central Bank is about to undertake. It may have put some starch into the Germans, to whom the ECB just bowed by saying it will do its quantitative easing without making taxpayers responsible for losses.
All other virtues of this drama aside, what a paroxysm of panic it has produced at the Financial Times, which has declared that “Thursday’s action in the Swiss franc defies the reach of hyperbole.” We haven’t heard such a primal scream from the FT since Prime Minister Thatcher cut taxes (at that juncture the Wall Street Journal consoled its competitor with an editorial called “Cheer Up, Lads”). The FT calls the Swiss National Bank’s move “a poor advertisement for Swiss reliability.” It suggests the Swiss demarche is “all the more remarkable” because the currency is “prized for its stability.”
We’re not sure “stability” is the word we’d have used for either the Swiss franc or the euro, or, for that matter, the dollar. The latter has lost more than 78% of its value since the start of the century (this morning it was worth but a 1,280th of an ounce of gold). A long-term chart of the Swiss franc shows that it (and the Euro) have kept pace with the dollar in this decline. Gold hasn’t changed its policies once during this period. Its quantity hasn’t changed a whole lot; it’s still inert; and hasn’t anybody found any world-shaking new industrial uses for the silent money. Not even the FT can blame the instability on gold.
The bitter truth is that all the sturm and drang over the Swiss franc is a feature of the age of fiat money. The exclamations of horror that have greeted the decision of one tiny country to stop playing the same game as the bigger countries testify to nothing so much as the absurdity of the fiat system. We’ve never understood the virtues of any country running down the value of its money. We’ve long felt that one country or another — Switzerland, Israel, Britain . . . someone — just ought to stop issuing its currency by fiat and return to a classical system. Wouldn’t it be something if it turns out that Switzerland has taken the first step.

Fallout From the Swiss is a Dress Rehearsal for the Dollar

Dollar-Note
The move in the Swiss was extraordinary because of the massive short-Swiss through loans and their own buying of Euros. The audacity of the IMF to even state they will look into this as if they have any such authority or credibility is just stunning. They want the inside info so they can line their own pockets along with friends.
The British brokerage house  Alpari (UK) Limited has entered insolvency due to the Swiss move. There is no way a Broker can limit the risk of an account when something moves 30%. There is more fallout to come. Just keep in mind this will happen when the dollar rises for there is even a larger short-dollar position around the globe. What we have seen in the Swiss will be the dress rehearsal for the dollar.