Monday, 22 December 2014

Five Rare Birds Sing a Wise Tune


December 18, 2014

In the spirit of the holidays, I’m sharing a happy truth: many people do, in fact, retire rich. Who are these rare birds and what can they teach us?
Rich Retire #1—The Pension Holder. If you have a large pension in 2014, you likely are or were a government employee. Many government workers receive pensions equal to 75-80% of their working salaries. In some government departments, it’s the unwritten custom for department heads to bump a worker’s salary 20% or so when he or she is a year or two from retirement. This boosts the employee’s base for his retirement pay.
Of course, in the private sector, pensions have gone the way of the slide rule. So let’s move on.
Rich Retire #2—The Small-Business Owner. If a self-employed person builds up a small or mid-sized business that he can sell when he’s ready to retire, that can fund a comfortable lifestyle during his nonworking years. Sure, it’s not “retirement investing” in the traditional sense, but it’s a path that’s worked for many entrepreneurs.
Rich Retire #3—The exceptional investor. Investors who lock in large boom-time gains are a step ahead of most. Those who resist the ever-so-tempting urge to spend that extra dough can watch it grow, and just like that, a rich retirement is theirs for the taking.
Rich Retire #4—The exceptional saver. A friend’s dad used to tell him, “Save 10% of your pay once you start working and you’ll be a millionaire by your mid-40s.” This friend’s dad was wrong. It didn’t take him that long. Ultra-disciplined savers live their lives this way, setting themselves up to retire rich without a last-minute race to the finish line.
Rich Retire #5—The former debtor who pays himself now. Except for those born independently wealthy, many of us spend years paying down sizable debts, such as a mortgage or educational loans. The rich retire clears those debts as soon as possible, but continues to make those payments… to himself.
Paying off your mortgage is a golden opportunity. Say it eats up 30-40% of your income. After you write that last check to the bank, you can save and invest 30-40% of your income without adjusting your lifestyle the tiniest bit. That money starts to compound, and pretty soon your real wealth is growing in leaps and bounds.

Joining the Flock

If you’re one of these rare birds, your biggest financial problem is the kettle of hawks eager to confiscate your wealth and redistribute it to those who haven’t exercised as much financial discipline as you have. On the other hand, if you’re not part of this flock, there’s likely still time for you.
Though the statistics often sound bleak for people who’ve spent 40-plus years as capital-S Spenders, it’s still possible to change.
Build a realistic plan. Some friends of mine had 20-plus credit cards, each with large balances. The exorbitant interest rates charged by credit cards makes paying off large balances extremely difficult. But these friends wrote out a tight budget, focused on paying off one credit card at a time, and with each success took a large pair of scissors and cut up the card and celebrated—on the cheap.
Large debt can make people feel out of control. It’s often overwhelming. But we all have a lot control over the expense side of our ledgers. You can’t un-spend money you’ve already spent, but you can reduce what you spend today, the next day, and the day after that. Those reductions can help you eliminate debt, and from there, you can follow the path of Rich Retiree #5—start making those debt payments to yourself.
Sell off large assets. Are you still living in a McMansion? Could you capture some of that equity and add it to your nest egg? Downsizing to the Goldilocks house—the one that’s not too big and not too small—can help you reduce regular home maintenance costs and property taxes. In high-tax states like Illinois, for example, it’s not unusual to pay well over $10,000 in real estate taxes.
Do you need a new luxury car every three years? Do you own a boat you take out on the lake once or twice a year? Jettison all of your unnecessary stuff and you’ll be many steps closer to a comfortable retirement.
Reduce your overhead. Do you really need to pay the cable company $100-plus per month for channels you never watch? What other fixed monthly expenses are wants disguised as needs?
This is emotionally tough stuff. We have friends who gave up their country club membership because they decided a comfortable retirement was a much higher priority. It was a straightforward decision in theory, but a lot of their friends are at the club. It’s hard to give up life’s little luxuries, especially when giving them up means excluding yourself. But when those luxuries are keeping you from a comfortable retirement, it’s time to bite the bullet.
Ask yourself the tough questions. Are you spending on status and prestige to give yourself an emotional boost? Many of us do this without even knowing it. But is a rich retirement worth giving up for status?
Know your bottom line. When baby boomers run their retirement numbers the first time, many are shocked. They realize they’re not saving nearly enough to retire comfortably. Up to this point, they’d never had to live within, much less below, their means.
Depending on your age, it can be difficult to save enough to replicate your current lifestyle in retirement. You can, however, begin to control your expenses fairly quickly. Once you do that, you can determine what kind of lifestyle you can realistically afford and build a plan to get there. Or maybe you’ll decide to work a few years longer or launch a second career so that you can maintain your current lifestyle over the long haul.
Money Forever Chief Analyst Andrey Dashkov built a Retirement Income Calculator that you can download to run your own projections. Using it is an invaluable first step. You can also sign up to receive timely, actionable tips on how to make the most of your nest egg from our free weekly e-letter, Miller’s Money Weekly. Each Thursday we send out need-to-know economic and investment news uniquely tailored for seniors and savers. Click here to join the Miller’s Money Weeklyfamily today.

Russian Roulette: Taxpayers Could Be on the Hook for Trillions in Oil Derivatives

The sudden dramatic collapse in the price of oil appears to be an act of geopolitical warfare against Russia. The result could be trillions of dollars in oil derivative losses; and the FDIC could be liable, following repeal of key portions of the Dodd-Frank Act last weekend.
Senator Elizabeth Warren charged Citigroup last week with “holding government funding hostage to ram through its government bailout provision.” At issue was a section in the omnibus budget bill repealing the Lincoln Amendment to the Dodd-Frank Act, which protected depositor funds by requiring the largest banks to push out a portion of their derivatives business into non-FDIC-insured subsidiaries.
Warren and Representative Maxine Waters came close to killing the spending bill because of this provision. But the tide turned, according to Waters, when not only Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, but President Obama himself lobbied lawmakers to vote for the bill.
It was not only a notable about-face for the president but represented an apparent shift in position for the banks. Before Jamie Dimon intervened, it had been reported that the bailout provision was not a big deal for the banks and that they were not lobbying heavily for it, because it covered only a small portion of their derivatives. As explained in Time:
The best argument for not freaking out about the repeal of the Lincoln Amendment is that it wasn’t nearly as strong as its drafters intended it to be. . . . [W]hile the Lincoln Amendment was intended to lasso all risky instruments, by the time all was said and done, it really only applied to about 5% of the derivatives activity of banks like Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, according to a 2012 Fitch report.
Quibbling over a mere 5% of the derivatives business sounds like much ado about nothing, but Jamie Dimon and the president evidently didn’t think so. Why?
A Closer Look at the Lincoln Amendment
The preamble to the Dodd-Frank Act claims “to protect the American taxpayer by ending bailouts.” But it does this through “bail-in”: authorizing “systemically important” too-big-to-fail banks to expropriate the assets of their creditors, including depositors. Under the Lincoln Amendment, however, FDIC-insured banks were not allowed to put depositor funds at risk for their bets on derivatives, with certain broad exceptions.
In an article posted on December 10th titled “Banks Get To Use Taxpayer Money For Derivative Speculation,” Chriss W. Street explained the amendment like this:
Starting in 2013, federally insured banks would be prohibited from directly engaging in derivative transactions not specifically hedging (1) lending risks, (2) interest rate volatility, and (3) cushion against credit defaults. The “push-out rule” sought to force banks to move their speculative trading into non-federally insured subsidiaries.
The Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in 2013 allowed a two-year delay on the condition that banks take steps to move swaps to subsidiaries that don’t benefit from federal deposit insurance or borrowing directly from the Fed.
The rule would have impacted the $280 trillion in derivatives primarily held by the “too-big-to-fail (TBTF) banks that include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Although 95% of TBTF derivative holdings are exempt as legitimate lending hedges, leveraging cheap money from the U.S. Federal Reserve into $10 trillion of derivative speculation is one of the TBTF banks’ most profitable business activities.
What was and was not included in the exemption was explained by Steve Shaefer in a June 2012 article in Forbes. According to Fitch Ratings, interest rate, currency, gold/silver, credit derivatives referencing investment-grade securities, and hedges were permissible activities within an insured depositary institution. Those not permitted included “equity, some credit and most commodity derivatives.” Schaefer wrote:
For Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the rule is almost a non-event, as they already conduct derivatives activity outside of their bank subsidiaries. (Which makes sense, since neither actually had commercial banking operations of any significant substance until converting into bank holding companies during the 2008 crisis).
The impact on Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and to a lesser extent, Wells Fargo, would be greater, but still rather middling, as the size and scope of the restricted activities is but a fraction of these firms’ overall derivative operations.

This past week in gold

Jack Chan
Posted Dec 22, 2014

GLD – on buy signal.
***
SLV – on buy signal.
***
GDX – on sell signal.
***
XGD.TO – on sell signal.
***
CEF – on buy signal.
***
USD - remains firmly above the 50ema and the trend is strong.

P.M. Kitco Roundup: Gold Ends Sharply Lower, Hits 3-Week Low, on Technical Selling, Lower Oil



Gold prices ended the U.S. day session sharply lower and hit a three-week low Monday. Technical selling was featured amid a lack of fresh, bullish fundamental news. Lower oil prices were also a bearish “outside market” force working in favor of the precious metals bears Monday. Thin volume, as many players are already off for the Christmas week, likely exacerbated the downside price move in gold Monday. February Comex gold was last down $21.40 at $1,174.70 an ounce. Spot gold was last down $19.80 at $1,174.75. March Comex silver last traded down $0.38 at $15.65 an ounce.
Trading activity could be active Tuesday, as the main U.S. economic report is on tap this week: the third-quarter gross domestic product report. GDP is expected to be up 4.3%, year-on-year, versus the previous reading of up 3.9%. Tuesday could be the busiest trading day of the week as there are also several other key U.S. economic reports due out. Look for trading activity to then quickly fade ahead of the Christmas holiday Thursday, and to remain light until the new year begins.
European and Asian markets were also quieter overnight. The feature in Europe was the Italian 10-year bond yield fell to a record low of 1.68%, reports said. Ironically, EU country bond yields are falling when anxiety about the health of the European Union is rising. A main reason for this paradox is that there are also heavy odds in favor of the European Central Bank initiating quantitative easing of its monetary policy next year. That prospect is leading investors to put their likely deflating Euros into even shaky EU governments’ debt.
The Russian ruble is stable Monday, following last week’s turmoil. Last week the ruble fell to 80 versus the U.S. dollar and was trading at 57 to the greenback on Monday.
The London P.M. gold fix was $1,195.25 versus the previous London A.M. fixing of $1,195.25.
Technically, February gold futures prices closed near the session low and hit a three-week low today. The gold bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Their next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $1,225.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,150.00. First resistance is seen at $1,182.00 and then at $1,190.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,174.20 and then at $1,170.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.0
March silver futures prices closed nearer the session low and closed at a three-week low close today. Prices also scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of $17.355 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $15.00. First resistance is seen at $16.00 and then at today’s high of $16.175. Next support is seen at today’s low of $15.53 and then at $15.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.
March N.Y. copper closed down 70 points at 287.75 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 295.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 277.75 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 290.50 cents and then at 292.50 cents. First support is seen at 2.8500 cents and then at last week’s low of 282.70 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.
By Jim Wyckoff

Central Banks On Diverging Paths In 2015


 With the 2008-2009 global financial crisis finally fading into the rear view mirror, focus turns the Big Three global central banks —the U.S. Federal Reserve, Japan's Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the euro-zone's European Central Bank (ECB).

Inflation Hedge Needs Are Evaporating


As oil continues its spectacular decline, and prices for gasoline start eyeing $1.50 per gallon in some places, inflation seems like some old fading cowboy from a Saturday afternoon movie serial riding into the sunset on his aged horse. Goodbye, Old Paint. (That’s the standard name for an old cowboy’s horse.)
While “core” inflation will hold out against the effects of lower gasoline prices, diesel, and liquefied natural gas for vehicles a little while longer, eventually manufacturers will build the plummeting cost of transportation into their products. That means inflation will stay the same or go down.
Aside from the powerful effect on gold and silver, the result of the diving prices will allow the United States and parts of Europe to continue their manufacturing renaissance. Their new market growth will be found on their own continents. Removing the ship-transport cost and adding low on-continent land shipping costs makes domestic manufactures all that more attractive. Some products from China and other parts of Asia will continue to flow, of course, but homegrown products become gain appeal as oil prices keep going down.
How long the price of oil continues in decline is, naturally, anyone’s guess. But there are some relatively sane analysts out there talking $40 a barrel. Some are even hinting at $25.
As you would expect, bond yields continue to creep down in the three major markets. The U.S., German and Japanese bonds are all off today.
The equities markets worldwide maintained their upward momentum. The Dow is actually poised to break 18,000. Another day like today (up 137 points) and it will barge through the barrier.
Reviewing the above, there is another ramification. Low, or even lower, inflation will probably give the FOMC great pause before raising interest rates. (Although there is a school that says it’s best to get way out ahead of inflation since effects of rate changes take a long time to filter into the actual mechanics of lending and liquidity.)
Right now, however, if oil keeps sliding, gold and its salutary effects in fending off inflation problems will hold little sway.
A further note of caution: the trading volume in gold is more than 25% off its 100-day average. That spells volatility. This week and next will be tricky for traders as that volume remains low. It might be noted, too, that the last time volatility in gold was this high was January 10th of this year (2014). It then began to decline. So, there is something to seasonal or cyclical volatility that we need to remain aware of. Wishing you as always, good trading,
Gary Wagner