“Gold's Mega-Move Days Have Turned Bullish”
In bidding
adieu (or if you prefer, a not-so-Golden
good riddance)
to 2014, 'tis said that those who've "manipulated" the price of Gold
lower shall be the same entities which shall "manipulate" it back up. To
the extent that the price of Gold is or is not "manipulated", (as long
as we can engage fairly and equitably in a like trading platform and
have enough size ourselves to shove price about manually and/or
algorithmically), we've got some very
heartening news to
share in closing out what has not so much been a down year for the
yellow metal, (as 'tis on target to finish just either side of the 1205
"break-even "level), but instead a year that has been perpetually
annoying. With only three trading days remaining in 2014, 'tis at this
juncture incidental as to whether Gold nets out an up or down year: for
far more material either way is the above scoreboard's telling us just
how alarmingly low price is relative to the growth in our money supply
these last 30 years.
However, here's the
heartening bit: be they
"manipulators" and/or legitimate trading forces sufficiently
capitalized to hoover away hundreds of bids or offers in an electronic
heartbeat, we've ferreted out data which is indicative of them having
changed their tune from selling/shorting Gold to now buying it, or if
you'd prefer, that the upside "manipulative" rumblings are at last
underway. To the naked eye, such activity is sufficiently stealth so as
not to notice it: but to a measurable degree, we've sussed it out, or at
the very least, found evidence of Gold's price now being protectively
supported. And as odd, indeed sparse or incomplete as the following
chart may at first glance appear, 'tis showing us the market moving
powers that be are shifting back into buy mode:
"Uh, mmb, like Ricky said, Lucy you got some 'splainin' to do..."
Absolutely, Squire. What you're looking at above are Gold's intra-day
price movements for the 250 trading days now in the books for 2014:
except visibly there are only six bars across the entirety of the chart.
Why? Because we've eliminated every day which traced a trading range of
less than 40 points between its session's high and low so as to only
cite Gold's "mega-move" days. And more importantly, here's the best
part: the colour of those six robust bars describes the
directional thrust of those mega-moves:
Red for down-thrust, and
Gold for up-thrust.
To be sure, 'twould be beyond the extremes of arrogance to believe
that which we pen influences market direction; we likely more oft are
considered a contrary indicator. But with respect to the above chart and
its cluster of three up mega-moves just in these last two months, they
curiously occurred with our introducing The Gold Update Scoreboard which
now opens these weekly missives. Coincidence?
"Absolutely, mmb."
Squire's brutal honesty notwithstanding, let us press on to the
graphic of Gold's weekly bars, wherein we see the parabolic trend having
survived its fourth week to the LongSide, as indicated by the ascending
blue dots. The descending dashed trendline across the chart belies just
how near Gold is to actually closing out 2014 as a "break-even" year,
2013 settling at 1204.8 and now yesterday (Friday) at 1196.1, again with
but three remaining trading days in the balance. Further note that
despite the absence of a rare "mega-day" this past week, price still
scampered up to close near its bar's high:
Of course, Sister Silver, below in her own weekly bars chart, shan't
be closing out 2014 anywhere near her 2013 settling price of 19.425,
for in finishing the week yesterday at 16.085, the descending dashed
trendline truly tells her tale of woe:
Don't take it too hard, Sis. You may be -17% year-to-date, but so
identically is Cousin Copper, whilst your distant Uncle Oil is -44%!
(Next week's missive in opening 2015 will present the final "BEGOS
Markets Standings" for 2014).
Then there's the stock market, which in conveniently ignoring global
asset price shrinkage, continues to bound merrily along, the S&P
500 setting all-time highs on a daily basis as 'tis complacently assumed
'twill do in perpetuity. We however, as you well know by now per our
being seemingly forever on "crash-watch", see it quite differently. As
our calculation of the S&P's price/earnings ratio closes in on 30x,
(the current "live" reading being 29.4x), please excuse our
implementation of even more common sense in pointing out that the
S&P's MoneyFlow is hardly keeping pace with price's perennial rise.
Here is their relationship regressed to an S&P-points basis over the
past 63 trading days (one quarter) to date, indicative of price
ascending
sans volume, quite in contrary to the past week's in-depth ChiTrib piece entitled
"Dow, S&P power to new records". Quite frankly, and rightly in tune with this 1977 hit by Jackson Browne, we see the S&P as
"Running On Empty...":
And therefore from the stock market's standpoint as having participated in this
December to Remember we're fully anticipating that 'twill be a capitulative
January to Forget.
And as goes January... Besides, let's face it: when you've the S&P
trading at double the support of its earnings base, and the price of
Gold valued at half its natural level given Dollar debasement alone,
something soon will give, and I suspect for the markets 'twill be
massive.
As for the chest-pounding "Dollar strength" crowd out there -- and
yes the beloved Greenback's Index now for the first time since April
2006 is just above 90 (90.315) -- the Buck is currently up 3% from
Gold's closing low day of the year (1140 on 05 November), whilst the
yellow metal itself is nevertheless up 5% from same:
Still, StateSide we've the percentage of adults in their prime
working years with full-time jobs near the lowest levels ever recorded,
(per the Bureau of Labor Statistics as far back as 1986). In the Middle
East, veteran Saudi Arabian Oil minister Ali "fake it on the
give-and-go" al-Naimi stated that Oil's price is irrelevant to output
decisions, the Saudi Finance Ministry then pledging to curb wages and
sally forth with investments next year toward lessening the blow of the
halved price of petroleum. Meanwhile over in Japan, for the first time
with records having been collected since 1955, their savings rate has
turned negative as the populous draw on their nest-eggs, despite
inflation just having slipped to a 14-month low. Westward across the sea
from there, China's industrial profits for November just fell by the
largest amount in two years. And not to be outdone by such economically
foundationless follies, Greece’s Parliament still has yet to elect a new
President, which were the anti-austerity opposition to instead become
empowered, could again bury Hellenic paper. All-in-all, a fairly good
year-ending basket of Gold positives,
non?
Which in turn gives us hope that 2015 shall be far better for Gold
than this Year of Annoyance. With just the three trading days left, we
close out 2014 with this final two-panel technical graphic.
On the left
we've Gold's daily bars for the past three months with the
ever-attendant "Baby Blues" depicting 21-day linear regression trend
consistency, which admittedly is waning, (and for those of you who read
the daily Prescient Commentary, you've likely noted an open signal for
Gold to trade down to 1164.1 per its daily Price Oscillator study having
gone negative).
On the right is Gold's 10-day Market Profile
showing price just a point below trading resistance at 1197, with
underlying, less participative support at 1178.
This ensuing holiday-shortened, boundless football bowls week is not
without some key incoming economic data, including December's Chicago
PMI reading on New Year's Eve and then in turn on Friday, the first
trading day of 2015, the ISM Index. In the interim, please be safe out
there: we want all of our great and valued readers riding along with us
in the Great Gold Machine of 2015!
A Happy and Golden New Year to Us All!
Cheers!
20:17
Unknown
It is impossible to create a connected, mobile and sustainable society without technology metals (precious metals, specialty metals and rare earth elements)
enabling it. Lithium stores energy in our rechargeable batteries;
neodymium's magnetic properties run electric motors of which there are
many in our lives; silver helps collect sunlight and turn it into
renewable energy. Tech Metals Insider reported about these and many other applications throughout the year.
Some support was seen in physical gold as we approach the Chinese
Lunar New Year, a favorite time for buying in the huge country. Other
than that, consumption of the actual metal is soft.
